Like all of you (?), browsing through the highlights of the latest Hydrogen Market reports that came online in Q4 2025 during the holidays, we felt that H2 demand has become the socks under our Christmas tree…..
See the Hydrogen Council’s first Global Hydrogen Compass 2025, published in September 2025:
When committed (FID+ including FID, under construction, and operational projects) investment in clean hydrogen surpassed $110 billion, totalling 510 projects, up $35 billion from 2024 and growing on average over 50% year-over-year since 2020, and clean hydrogen supply is ready to scale from 1 mtpa operational today, to 6 mtpa of confirmed clean hydrogen capacity, with expectations ranging form 9-14 mtpa by 2030, only 3.6 mtpa of binding global offtake is in place today, 60% of committed project capacity. By 2030, that could increase to about 8 mtpa of 2030 clean H2 demand in the EU, US, Japan, and Korea, if…..existing policies are………..
See the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review 2025‘s second of its five ultimate hydrogen questions:
According to the IEA, global offtake agreements signed in 2024 reached 1.7 Mtpa, compared with 2.4 Mtpa in 2023. – being only 5% (of the potential production that announced projects could achieve by 2030 (reaching 4.2 million tonnes per year, according to the IEA). These agreements cover for 80% uses in refining and chemical industries and the use of hydrogen-based fuels in shipping and, to a smaller extent, aviation and power generation. Low-emissions hydrogen yielded mixed results in 2024; use in steel sector in Europe were delayed, however refining and fertilisers led to final investment decisions for production plants in Europe and India.
Europe still seems to be running the fastest in adopting sectoral quotas for hydrogen use in transport and industry, with the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) quotas that still need need to be transposed into national legislation by EU member states and mandates for the aviation sector.
Germany as one of the first EU Member states approved new amendments to its greenhouse gas reduction quota (GHG quota), setting binding green hydrogen and RFNBO fuel mandates for transport that exceed EU Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) targets. Under the revised law, fuel suppliers will face stricter emissions-reduction obligations, with quotas rising from 10.6% in 2025 to 59% by 2040 Part of these these targets must be met using green hydrogen or other renewable fuels of non-biological origin.
The new rules introduce a phased RFNBO quota for the transport sector, starting with 0.1% in 2026, ramping up to 1.2% in 2030, and reaching 8% by 2040. This puts Germany ahead of RED III’s EU-wide RFNBO benchmark of just 1% by 2030.
For the rest of the world, India (with a focus on refining and fertilisers) and Japan and Korea (with a focus on power generation) have also started support programmes for the production of green hydrogen. Unfortunately the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Net-Zero Framework saw a setback with the US decision to not back these ambitions and current IMO regulations stimulating demand for liquefied natural gas or biofuels instead.
The EU Military Mobility Package that came out November 19 2025, with almost no reference to sustainable mobility, should develop a “dual-use” trans-European transport network. Funding under the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027, EUR 1.69 billion co-funded 95 dual-use projects, should increase tenfold to EUR 17.65 billion for the next budgetary period starting in 2028. In the meantime, Member States can also use reallocated Cohesion policy funds, urgently until end of 2025 and the SAFE instrument to support dual-use infrastructure projects.
For this purpose the EU Commission together with Member States, supported by the EU Military Staff, identified around 500 “hotspot” projects to remove critical bottlenecks on priority military mobility corridors. These projects include among others reinforcing bridges, widening tunnels, and increasing capacity including at ports, airports, energy, and communications nodes, and will now be systematically identified and safeguarded. Member States will need to draw up national lists based on harmonised criteria, which the Commission will review to ensure cross-border coherence.
On December 16, 2025 EU’s Automotive Package included a “pragmatic approach” to reducing CO2 standards, meaning a 90% tailpipe emissions reduction target by 2035, while the remaining 10% emissions will need to be compensated through the use of low-carbon steel Made in the EU, or from e-fuels and biofuels, allowing still for plug-in hybrids (PHEV), range extenders, mild hybrids, and internal combustion engine vehicles to still play a role beyond 2035, in addition to full electric (EVs) and hydrogen vehicles.
An important part of this Package covers the uptake of zero-emission vehicles within corporate fleets, marking an additional step towards achieving the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation targets for 2050. This new Regulation aims to drive the uptake of clean corporate vehicles by large undertakings, which account for 60% of new car registrations and up to 90% of vans registrations across the EU. The proposed Regulation mandates Member States to ensure that starting in 2030, a specific share of new corporate car and van registrations by large companies in their territory must be zero- and low-emission. There will also be a sub target for zero-emission vehicles, both for cars and vans. Targets are differentiated by Member State. Public authorities will have full flexibility for decisions at national level as regards the necessary measures to spur the uptake of zero- and low-emission vehicles by large undertakings, while ensuring that the proposal’s objectives are met.
In addition the so called Automotive Omnibus should ease administrative burden and cut costs for European manufacturers and boost decarbonisation by saving approximately €706 million per year, thanks to all omnibuses and simplification initiatives the Commission has presented so far to around €14.3 billion per year.